If anyone is interested in seeing ADCIRC output for Irene forcasts, you can check it out here: http://nc-cera.renci.org/cgi-cera_nc/cera_nc.cgi?day=20110824&time=1800&com=203
Let me know if you have any questions as to how to navigate.
One note: this system was developed for North Carolina (thus, the CERA-NC title). So, while the forecast is for the entire western Atlantic and GOM, the grid has been optimized and resolved with North Carolina in mind. Therefore, results for the Chesapeake Bay/Delaware Bay/NYC/Long Island Sound/Bay of Fundy/etc. will not be as accurate as they could be with more focus dedicated to model development in those regions.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Irene Results
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8 comments:
Based on my expertise in hydrodynamic modeling, I would advise cancelling any potential weekend trips to the outer banks of North Carolina for the coming weekend. I would also not go kayaking in Long Island Sound.
Darn! That changes everything....:)
The animation is cool...the way I interpreted it, the surge is supposed to take the wave height to be around 15 ft above where it usually is, in most of the affected areas? Not at all sure I got that right....
There are a couple different things available. The water elevation gives the "surge". The significant wave heights are also available. The significant wave height is a statistical metric for waves, it is the mean height of the highest third of the waves. However, the significant wave height listed in this app is output from the SWAN wave model, which is dynamically coupled to ADCIRC. So, it's a model computed quantity.
North Carolina is protected from wave action by the barrier islands. However, other areas without such geographic features will be subject to some large waves on top of the surge that comes in.
What's your plan, dad?
Get out the surfboard. Though I don't think 15' will be enough to bring the beach quite to our doorstep.
I'll be surprised if we don't have a power outage when the winds kick up and blow some trees down around the area.
Current ADCIRC forecast is showing surge 10+ ft for NC, Virginia and the southern end of the Chesapeake, Delaware Bay and NJ, NYC, Providence and the MA boot.
I don't think you want to surf in this, dad.
Irene seems to be decreasing in strength faster than expected, which is good.
No, as my flight into D.C. is canceled. The conference also cancelled the first day of presentations (Monday) so is now down to 1 1/2 days which is less than the travel time to & fro. I'm waiting to hear from my superiors as to whether I should try to reschedule the flight for Monday or cancel completely.
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