Recent increases in hurricane activity in the Atlantic, as well as a heightened awareness of anthropogenic climate change due to emissions of greenhouse gases, has led to more interest in the connection between tropical cyclones and climate. In this review paper, the connections between tropical cyclones and climate variables (Atlantic Meridional Mode, North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño – Southern Oscillation, 30 mb Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Sahelian Rainfall, sea level pressures and sea surface temperatures) are explored, with the primary focus given to Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. More active Atlantic tropical cyclone seasons are correlated with positive phases of the Atlantic Meridional Mode, westerly 30 mb winds and wet periods of Sahelian Rainfall. Strong El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation has been correlated with Atlantic hurricane tracks.
Predictions of changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations typically suggest that the intensity of storms will increase, with the frequency remaining unchanged or decreasing slightly. The predictions also suggest that individual basins will be impacted in different ways, with activity in the western North Pacific expected to increase most drastically. However, the science of tropical cyclones, especially as it relates to genesis and intensification, and coupled ocean-atmosphere climate science must be advanced before definitive statements can be made about the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclone activity.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
An Abstract Teaser
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4 comments:
What impacts, if any, for AK are implied by increased activity in the western North Pacific?
No specific impacts are implied, directly, for AK, as tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific do not impact the U.S. However, broader issues in terms of changes in global atmospheric circulation and ocean circulation patterns could have an impact on the Alaskan climate. But, that is beyond the scope of my knowledge ... and probably a debatable issue among people who know more about it than me.
I had the same question about the impact on California, which I guess is part of the U.S. so as per Evan's response will not experience direct effects (according to the theory, anyway). I keep hearing speculation that the Western seaboard will become drier, which certainly seems to be the case this year. But I also saw an article in the paper arguing that the water shortage we are experiencing is more attributable to water being shipped to Southern California than anything else. A perennial source of conflict...
Well, theoretically, hurricanes in the eastern Pacific could impact California. Isn't winter the rainy season for California? One of the people on my PhD committee works for the National Severe Storms Lab and often goes to California to operate the mobile radar trucks (or something like that) when large storms are coming in off of the Pacific. I heard through the grapevine that such a storm is approaching for this weekend. Is that correct?
I don't know about California in particular, but there is speculation that some areas will become drier in a warmer climate. Also, speculation is that some areas will also become wetter and that droughts and extreme rainfall events will become more prevalent. I think people think that the atmosphere will become more moist in a warmer climate ... and there will be more evaporation ... so, depending on the relative increases of those quantities, there may be more or less precipitation.
I guess it will be interesting to see. Either way, California has a water problem. Tanya and I discussed tornado alley on our walk with Jester and Justice yesterday ... they did not chime in. Additionally, Tanya raised a conspiracy theory that U.S. and Chinese carbon emissions are an attempt to crush the civilizations of Western Europe, which could experience an ice age due to all the freshwater being dumped into the North Atlantic by melting ice. She sees it as an attack on WE culture because everyone on the continent will have to move south, creating a melting pot effect ... or something like that.
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