For those of you who'd like to read an interesting article on storm surge predictions for New Orleans, check out
http://www.pubs.asce.org/ceonline/ceonline03/0603feat.html
an article published in Civil Engineering Magazine written by Westerink and Leuttich (the two people Casey was choosing between to do his PhD). I'll admit, I haven't read it recently (I did last year around the start of my OU tenure), so I'm not sure exactly what is in there, but Kendra told me that the model predictions are pretty good.
By the way, mom has the best guess for the number of stairs ... she guessed 205 stairs, which may, or may not, be correct.
: - )
Thursday, September 8, 2005
June 2003 ... why didn't Bush increase funding?
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6 comments:
Ok, so there isn't a whole lot about the ADCIRC simulations, probably because they hadn't done a whole bunch yet.
Actually, my guess was 215, not 205.
I especially like the acronym of the National Weather Service's system—SLOSH. It seems like most of the predictions were very pessimistic. They were simulating a big storm hitting New Orleans head on. It also seems like this led some people to conclude that many measures, some that might have helped against Katrina, were inadequate, and therefore not worth implementing.
It's also possible that this was a case of conflicting "experts". I understand that, given a sufficiently large pool of people, you can find a "scientist" who will attest to pretty much anything. Though majority rules in elections and Congress, it doesn't seem to matter when politicians are consulting science.
Sorry, mom ... 215 ... Jenn guessed 223.
We're hoping that the strong match between AdCirc simulations and actual results will lead to more funding for work on the model, but that remains to be seen.
Speaking of papers, I started to read your (Roy's) paper, but quickly became aware that I have no idea about lots of the stuff in there. I think you (Roy) should switch to baseball ... I know something about that.
Thanks for posting that article, Evan, it's fascinating.
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