Sequestered in Seattle, Day 418

Monday proceeded much as usual. I watered the yard in the morning, and found pears, cherries, and plums all growing where flowers had been. The plums seem especially abundant. We've never had a plum from that tree before. Later in the day it started raining, even heavily, but it was still probably worth watering many of the plants, sheltered by the eaves.

In the evening I saw several snails had found the cactus pots. I doubt they can make much progress on them, but maybe I'll be surprised.

I made bread this morning and pizza for dinner. We watched the first episode of season two of Merlin, and then I read two chapters of Treasure Island with the boys while the girls read on their own. Nicole placed an order for a few more plants, including fireweed, from a nursery in Peshastin, between Leavenworth and Wenatchee. We're planning to go that way on Saturday.

The Monday statistics check showed cases down in the U.S. and at least stable in Washington State. I saw New York and New Jersey are planning to reopen soon, though their per capita new case rates have only just fallen to the same level that Washington's have recently risen to. Success is relative, I guess.

Vaccination rates have slowed further, and daily first doses are now around one million. At this rate it would be another six months before everyone had a dose, but I'm afraid never is more like it, though of course 100% was never the goal. There were articles today about how herd immunity probably won't be achieved, and also hopeful ones saying 60% might be enough to look like Israel. If twelve-year-olds are approved next week, that may increase the rate, again, soon, assuming they're made eligible shortly thereafter. 92% of U.S. teenagers are vaccinated against measles. We may need similarly aggressive approaches to reach the other half with these vaccines.

I don't think I'm waiting for herd immunity, precisely. I don't need everything to go back to the way it was before. If I have to go on wearing a mask in the grocery store for a while, so be it. What might make me comfortable sending the younger kids back to school in the fall, even without vaccines, is a sustained decline in the number of cases, especially locally, but to a lesser degree elsewhere, too. Vaccines are a big part of achieving that, now, but they were never necessary, as we've seen from other parts of the world, and they don't have to be the whole story. We just need all the mitigations to combine to hold transmission down, instead of rolling them back whenever hospitals have room for more victims. If you're in a place where new cases are falling fast, go ahead and follow the CDC's new advice on outdoor masks, I guess. If your case rates are steady or rising, like mine, you want to be doing more, not less, to discourage transmission. And when you find success, keep at it.